Germany has made a high-stakes gambit, betting that it can secure a quick and decisive “yes” from its 26 European partners to a trade deal that overwhelmingly serves its own national interest. The entire success of the US-EU framework hinges on this bet, as relief for Germany’s auto industry depends on swift, collective EU action.
The gambit involves accepting a deal with terms that are unpalatable to many other EU members. Germany is effectively asking France to ignore its wine industry’s pain and Italy to overlook its massive projected export losses for the greater good—a “greater good” that directly translates into a lifeline for German car manufacturers.
To win this bet, Berlin will have to deploy its full diplomatic weight in Brussels. It will argue that a healthy German economy is essential for the entire bloc and that averting a full-blown trade war benefits everyone. It will pressure the European Commission to table legislation immediately and lobby fellow member states to fall in line without delay.
However, this is a risky strategy. By pushing its own interests so forcefully, Germany risks alienating its partners and fueling accusations that it dominates the EU’s agenda. If the gambit fails and the EU process stalls, Germany’s prized auto industry will be the one left paying the price for the unpopular deal it championed.
